Until recently, the Italians were considered the weakest team in the competition, and were also thought to have a one-track pack-based game. While the front 8 can still be relied upon to deliver a tough physical challenge, coach John Kirwan has broadened their style and the squad includes some impressive running attackers. Scrum-half Paul Griffen, another New Zealand native, made his debut against England last year and was voted Italy's player of the tournament. The Bergamasco brothers are also well known to world rugby. Mirco, the younger of the two, is an accomplished full-back and plays his club rugby with Stade Francais, who have once again reached the knockout stages of the European Cup. Also at Stade is his older brother Mauro. Mauro has 38 caps to his credit, due in part to his versatility – he has appeared for Italy as a flanker and also as a winger. Kirwan also has Allesandro Troncon (85 caps) and Cristian Stoica (61 caps) at his disposal, should he want to balance Bergamasco flair with the experience of seasoned professionals.

Italy won't win the championship, but they could win a couple of games. They have a serious chance at home to Wales and also away to Scotland. A few years ago, they might have fancied their chances against the Irish, but just as Italy has moved forward, so too have we.

Italy-Ireland games tend to be tough physical contests, and the bad news for Ireland is that we have another match just 6 days later. The good news is that it's against Scotland.

Scottish rugby is at its lowest point in some time. Not only are the Scottish teams failing to impress in the European Cup (none of them made the knockout stages), but the Scottish Rugby Union are now the proud owners of their very own Genesis Report! Yes, the same people who reported on the shambles that is the FAI, were commissioned to do a similar analysis of the rugby structures in Scotland, and the Genesis people were similarly damning. They criticised the leadership of Scottish rugby and opined that there was not sufficient investment to maintain, much less improve the fortunes of the national team. Coach Matt Williams, formerly of Leinster, is at great pains to point out that the behind the scenes wrangling will not influen
ce results on the pitch. In autumn, the Scots beat Japan by 92 points, an irrelevancy in modern rugby. More importantly, the lost to Australia twice, by 14 and 17 points, and the South Africa team that lost to Ireland beat Scotland 45-10. Undoubtedly Ireland will encounter some spirited resistance and the Scots can always be relied upon to provide at least one upset. But anything less than an Irish win would be just that – an upset.

Here is where the fixture list is particularly kind to Ireland. Having started off with our two easiest matches, we then have a 15-day break before facing England at Lansdowne Road. Nobody needs to be reminded that our neighbours are the World Champions. Neither do we need to be reminded what happened in Twickenham last year, when Ireland had one of its greatest ever rugby results, and scored one of the best tries of the year in any competition. The England squad contains a large amount of talent as always, but is perhaps lacking in a natural leader. Martin Johnson and Lawrence Dallaglio have both retired from international rugby. Jonny Wilkinson is still out injured and says that the Ireland game is his target for returning to international rugby. Even if he makes that target (which he probably will – injuries tend to be exaggerated by coaches) he will surely be ring-rusty and not at his sharpest. England are a formidable team and are justifiable favourites to win the championship, so let's not get carried away on a wave of patriotic fervour. Current captain Jason Robinson is an outstanding talent. They still have Josh Lewsey, Simon Shaw, Ben Cohen and arguably the best scrum-half in the game, Matt Dawson. However, facing them at Lansdowne without their inspirational leaders and with (at best) a less than perfect Wilkinson, this is as good a chance as Ireland will get.

After another generous recovery period (13 days) Ireland play host to France. The French are difficult to assess. Recently their international team has flattered to deceive, but take another look at the European Cup. There are 3 French teams in the last 8, each of which has earned home advantage, and any one of them could win it outright. Also, it is well known that French rugby team greets defeat in friendly matches with little more than a Gallic shrug. Show them a serious competition though, and watch the fireworks. Although Olivier Magne is currently doubtful with injury, France still have Fabien Pelous, Yannick Bru, and the man who could bring down a stampeding rhinoceros, Serge Betson (assuming he avoids suspensions). France are coached by Bernard Laporte, known for his low tolerance of indiscipline, so perhaps he is the man to get the most from a somewhat temperamental mix.

Ireland's last game is a trip to the Millenium Stadium to take on the unpredictable Welsh. Wales are enjoying a resurgence of sorts at the moment, with a couple of honourable defeats. They lost narrowly to South Africa (38-36) in November, and but for an outstanding performance by Percy Montgomery, could have actually won it. Gavin Henson and Stephen Jones were excellent for Wales then, and will no doubt be trying to give more of the same against their near neighbours. Two weeks later, Wales lost to New Zealand by the narrowest of margins, 25-26. Jones and Henson were on top form while Colin Charvis gave an exhibition of tackling, and at one stage Wales were 19-13 ahead. But while England are the current World Champions, over a broader timespan New Zealand are still the standard by which all other teams are judged. The All-Blacks took a 23-19 lead and despite being down to 14 men for the last 10 minutes, they held on against the Welsh pressure. In a 6-Nations context, this means that despite losing twice, Wales know they have talent in their ranks, and they will see their opponents as being no better than New Zealand or South Africa. This will be a crunch game for the Irish, and could actually be a championship decider.