The psychological effect of the tragedy on the survivors is of a prime concern also to both the Indonesian Government and GAM, the Free Aceh Movement. William Nessen, who has written extensively on the conflict, approaches the issue cautiously: &ldquoIn some ways we don't know what the relationship between the tsunami and the conflict will be. It destroyed the main city, a place that had been for a long time exempt in many ways from the conflict. For the last two years at least. That place which had been protected from the conflict, is now destroyed. The people in the city though had a role in the conflict, which way they were leaning really affected the fortunes of the independence movement and Indonesia's grip on Aceh. For the last two years or so, as the Indonesians have had stronger control of the capital, people have been going along with them, becoming more and more pessimistic about the prospect of independence. Now these people have been traumatised, and we don't know which way they'll lean. Will they support the independence movement more? I've heard some people say that ‘we've suffered enough, Indonesia should just go now’, or will it be more ‘I don't want to hear about politics’?”
&ldquoIn west Aceh – Nessen continues – which was more heavily hit than Banda perhaps, huge numbers were killed. Some people have been saying between 50-70% of the population have been killed. A lot of people were moved down from their villages, to the main road area, in order to clear a space for the Indonesian military to wage war, and to cut the guerillas off from the population. Thousands of people were moved, and with the tsunami, most of those people were killed. So a lot of the people who have suffered the most in the conflict, have died in the Tsunami, leaving a big question mark in relation to the conflict. What will the remaining people feel?”
The Outside Presence
The Indonesian Government initially suggested that they hoped that foreign NGOs would leave the province by March 26th, though that deadline has now been extended to April 27th. It may be the case that certain NGOs will be allowed to stay after that date, with sufficient experience and capability to aid in the reconstruction work, though there remains uncertainty as to the position of foreign aid bodies in the province: &ldquoThe ideal situation would be that we can solve all the needs of the people as quickly as possible, and leave – says MSF’s spokesman – We’re in it for the medium term at the moment, working on primary health care and mental health care, and it’s not something you can put a specific date on, but I’d say years rather than months”.
One of the stated reasons for wanting aid agencies to leave has been cultural sensitivity to this predomninantly Muslim area. There have been accusations that a number of both Christian and Muslim aid agencies have taken advantage of the situation to proselytise. It's not something Lorenz can comment about, though he pragmatically admits that &ldquothere are a lot of faith based charities in Aceh at the moment, that much is clear. Whether they’re using it as an opportunity to proselytize, I don’t know. It would only be guessing on my part. The fact of the matter is that aid agencies around the world, the majority of them, are faith based and have been for years. When you go to the forest in the Congo, and you’ve got an aid agency, that’s faith based. A lot of charities are like this. It’s regulated in the way that it would normally be, but it’s difficult to do so”. His experience on the ground though has been contrary to the suggestion that the Acehnese people themselves would wish foreign groups to leave the province: &ldquoThere’s been an immense welcome there. People were really glad to see aid agencies coming in, to see foreigners coming in. For different reasons. They appreciated the solidarity, that people outside Aceh could empathise with what was happening. Also there was clearly a feeling of security coming from the fact that there were so many foreigners around”.
While there are hints in Lorenz's comments, it would be unfair to expect aid workers to express outright opinions on the political situation, particularly as it remains uncertain. Nessen, however, as a journalist who has written much about the situation dismisses the notion, suggested by the Indonesian Government, that the Acehnese are somehow wary of foreigners: &ldquoThe presence of foreigners is something the Acehnese have wanted for thirty years or more. I saw guerillas looking up at American helicopters, holding up their arms saying ‘I love America’. They may be very naiive in some ways, but they see the presence of outsiders as key to their liberation. Also it's key to their protection. People would gravitate towards foreign soldiers, thinking that as long as there were foreign soldiers there they would be protected from the Indonesian military. Now the foreign soldiers have gone, but there are still foreign aid workers who afford some protection. You can't just shoot people when there are foreigners around. This is what both the guerillas and the Acehnese have wanted for a very long time”.
The Military Situation
One of the key questions, when discussing the conflict, is how the tsunami has specifically affected both GAM and the TNI [Indonesian military]. According to Nessen, &ldquovery few guerillas died in the Tsunami, because they're up in the hills, off the main road which runs around the province. Before 2003, most of the conflict centred on control of this road, but since 2003 and the military offensive, the guerillas were driven up into the upper villages and forests, so very few died. A lot of the villagers who were forced down from their villages, were relatives of guerillas. It really didn't affect GAM directly – it affected their families. Almost all GAM members that I met in western Aceh had lost at least one member of their family in the tsunami. In Banda, the capital, the second area that was hit heavily by the tsunami, there weren't many guerillas. A lot of people died in the jails in Banda though. One of them for example, where all the female GAM prisoners were held, was Cut Nor Asyikin, one of the most revered orators and leaders of the referendum movement. The jail there was right beside the water – I visited it, and it's just gone. They found bodies a couple of kilometres away, ten metres up in trees, that's how powerful the water was: It broke down the jail and washed bodies two kilometres away. A couple of hundred GAM prisoners died in the jails in Bandah”.