While Berlusconi was in power, particularly for the second time, the usual question asked by non-Italians, was ‘how could you have voted for such a government?’, headed by a man with a shady past, with court cases coming out of his proverbials, not to mention his tendency towards Bernard Manning-style improv-comedy on the world stage.

The answer, unfortunately, has always been – ‘but have you seen the other guys?’.

Prodi’s government has fallen in a self-inflicted defeat. Technically the defeat in the Senate does not force the resignation of the government. Humiliating, sure, but not an issue that would force the government to resign (indeed it has already lost a number of votes in the senate). What made it an issue to resign was the determination of foreign minister Massimo D’Allema, who publicly stated to the press, presumably with the approval of his cabinet colleagues, that should the bill on Afghanistan be defeated it would be time for the government to step down.

Should the two rebels being blamed for the government’s defeat have voted in favour of a renewed mission in Afghanistan, to save the government? Given that America is gearing up for renewed fighting in Iraq, and a probable escalation with Iran, the question should probably be more directed towards D’Allema, asking why this issue was important enough to perform Hari Kari on?

Beppe Grillo, the hugely popular comedian/satirist/internet activist, reflected a popular view this evening when he lambasted the government for the choice of issue on which to have this showdown:

“A philo-Bush line was not in the programme of the Union. Nor was VicenzaLebanonKabul. […] I would have understood a government beaten over electoral reform for giving back citizens the right to choose their candidates. Or defeated on a law on conflict of interests. Or ripped apart for eliminating ad personam laws. In all these cases it would have had my admiration. For Kabul no. Just ask Gino Strada why.”¹

The waters are muddy still, but this evening a number of different scenarios are taking shape:
1) Prodi returns to the parliament for a vote of confidence, which, after yet another agreement on policy between the various different parties that make up the centre-left coalition, he will win. The government lasts as long as it lasts. Given the numbers, this is unlikely.

2) As with #1, but with the scope simply of modifying the electoral laws, to ensure that a split parliament does not recur – then to elections.

3) Prodi can’t or won’t do either of the above, and elections are immediately called.

4) A caretaker government, without Prodi, takes the stage to deal with pressing matters such as Afghanistan and the electoral reform.

The smart money is on a combination of #1 & 2 – i.e the government will try to do #1, while preparing the worst case scenario of #2.

One thing you can bet on, though, is that despite the atrocious leadership shown over these last months, none of the apparatchiks will be stepping down.

And that, dear friends, is why Italians will vote for Berlusconi…

1. “La politica filo Bush non era nel programma dell’Unione. Neppure Vicenzalibanokabul.

Avrei capito un Governo battuto sulla riforma elettorale per riconsegnare ai cittadini la possibilità di scegliere il candidato. O strabattuto su una legge per il conflitto di interessi. O frantumato per l’eliminazione delle leggi ad personam. In tutti questi casi avrebbe avuto la mia ammirazione.
Per Kabul no. Bastava chiedere a Gino Strada per sapere perchè.”