The only surprising things about the fall of Romano Prodi’s governemnt last night – following a vote of no confidence which was defeated in the lower house, but passed in the Senate where Prodi’s majority has always been in single figures- was a)how long it took and b) the surprise itself that greeted Clemente Mastella’s ‘betrayal’ of the government.

Mastella, currently under investigation for corruption (along with the larger part of the UDEUR his party, including his wife) has repeatedly threatened to bring down the government – any time there was even the whiff of granting homosexuals the right to civil partnerships, for example – so it should have come as no surprise to anyone that he would evenutally do it.

When Prodi’s shaky coalition first came to power the press and political commentators all stressed how impossible it would be for Prodi to keep the ‘extreme’-left and ‘moderates’ like Mastella together (how denying consenting adults the right to declare themselves next of kin, and to benefit from conjugal property rights can be considered ‘moderate’ is another day’s argument). Repeatedly the threat of ‘reds in the bed’ was waved before Prodi by his detractors – we were led to believe that the various trotskyites and communists that had infiltrated his ranks would bring down the government (in fairness, it was Bertinotti’s Rifondazione Comunista party that brought Prodi down the last time).

And so, some feign surprise when in fact it was the ‘moderates’ who brought down this government. How surprising can it be that someone like Mastella plays the political opportunist? He had already been a coalition partner to both Berlusconi and Prodi’s previous governments.

What happens next is largely unclear. President Napolitano will hold consultations today with various political leaders. The newly born DS party favour some sort of ‘institutional caretaker’ government charged with the specific task of urgent electoral reform. Berlusconi’s Forza Italia seem opposed to the idea, given that his centre-right coalition will almost certainly win any election held in the coming months. Given the poor performance of the Prodi government in all likelihood Berlusconi will romp home with a majority in both houses, using the same electoral system which crippled Prodi’s government last time round.

THis monkey will post further as news emerges